As the world's attention pivots towards flashpoints in Europe and the Pacific, a new contest for influence is quietly unfolding in the heart of Eurasia. Turkey, Iran and India are stepping into the vacuum left by distracted global powers, each bringing its own strengths and strategies to the table in a bid to shape the future of Central Asia.

This modern iteration of the 'Great Game' is playing out against a backdrop of shifting geopolitical priorities. Russia, long the dominant force in the region, finds its attention and resources increasingly consumed by the conflict in Ukraine. The United States, having withdrawn from Afghanistan, is preoccupied with challenges in the Indo-Pacific. China, while still a significant player through its Belt and Road Initiative, is grappling with internal economic pressures and tensions over Taiwan.

Into this arena step three ambitious so-called middle powers, each with its own vision for Central Asia's future.

Turkey and Iran

Ankara's strategy revolves around the development of the 'Middle Corridor', an ambitious transport route linking China to Europe via Central Asia, the Caucasus and Turkey. This vision aligns neatly with Turkey's longstanding desire to leverage its geographic position as a bridge between East and West.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been particularly active in promoting this initiative, seeing it as a way to boost Turkey's economic and political clout. The country has invested heavily in infrastructure projects across Central Asia, from railways to logistics hubs, aiming to position itself as the indispensable link in this new Silk Road. However, Turkey's ambitions face a significant hurdle: geography. To fully realise its Middle Corridor dream, Ankara needs to secure a route through Armenia: the proposed 'Zangezur Corridor'. This remains a contentious issue, not least because it has raised alarm bells in Tehran.

Iran, for its part, views itself as Central Asia's natural partner. With a shared cultural and historical heritage, and crucially, a direct land border with Turkmenistan, Iran offers Central Asian states their most direct route to international waters.

Tehran's approach has been multifaceted. On the economic front, it has been promoting its southern ports, particularly Chabahar, as the ideal export route for landlocked Central Asian countries. The recent visit of Turkmenistan's leader to Tehran, resulting in four strategic cooperation documents, underscores Iran's diplomatic push in the region. But Iran's strategy goes beyond economics. In a region wary of security threats, Tehran has been positioning itself as a reliable partner in counterterrorism efforts. The inauguration of a drone production line in Tajikistan last year was a clear signal of Iran's willingness to engage in military cooperation with Central Asian states. Moreover, Iran sees engagement with Central Asia as a way to mitigate the impact of Western sanctions. By fostering closer ties with its northern neighbours, Tehran hopes to create new economic lifelines and reduce its international isolation.

India: the democratic alternative

India, the latest entrant in this contest, brings its own unique proposition to Central Asia. As the world's largest democracy and a rapidly growing economy, New Delhi presents itself as an alternative to both Russian paternalism and Chinese economic dominance. India's primary focus has been on enhancing connectivity. The centrepiece of this strategy is the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a multi-mode network of ship, rail and road routes for moving freight between India, Iran, Afghanistan, Central Asia and Europe.

Central to this vision is the development of Iran's Chabahar Port, in which India has invested significantly. This project aims to bypass Pakistan, offering India a direct route to Afghanistan and Central Asia. Despite the challenges posed by the Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan, India remains committed to this initiative. Beyond infrastructure, India has been leveraging its soft power, offering scholarships to Central Asian students and promoting cultural exchanges. It has also been quietly expanding its security cooperation, conducting joint military exercises and offering training programmes.

For Central Asian countries, this renewed attention from regional powers presents both opportunities and challenges. On one hand, it offers the prospect of increased investment, improved connectivity, and a chance to reduce dependence on Russia and China. On the other, it risks pulling these nations into new geopolitical competitions. Each of the contenders faces its own hurdles. Turkey's ambitions are constrained by geography and its complex relationships in the Caucasus. Iran's efforts are hampered by international sanctions and regional suspicions about its intentions. India, while offering an attractive partnership, struggles with limited resources and the logistical challenges of reaching Central Asia. Moreover, Russia and China remain significant players in the region. Moscow's security guarantees and China's economic heft cannot be easily displaced, regardless of their current preoccupations elsewhere.

Looking ahead

As this new chapter of the Great Game unfolds, several key questions emerge. Can Turkey overcome the geographical and political obstacles to realise its Middle Corridor vision? Will Iran's combination of cultural ties, geographic proximity, and military cooperation prove compelling to Central Asian leaders? Can India translate its soft power and democratic credentials into tangible influence? The answers to these questions will shape not just the future of Central Asia, but also the broader balance of power across Eurasia. As Turkey, Iran, and India jockey for position, Central Asian nations find themselves with more options – and more complex choices – than they have had in decades.

What is clear is that Central Asia, long considered a backwater in global affairs, is again becoming a focal point of international competition. The region's vast natural resources, strategic location, and untapped economic potential make it an increasingly important piece on the global chessboard.

For policymakers in Ankara, Tehran and New Delhi, success in Central Asia could be transformative, offering new trade routes, energy supplies, and strategic depth. For the Central Asian states themselves, skilful navigation of these competing interests could lead to a new era of prosperity and autonomy.