Serious concern about “the security situation in the context of the terrorist threat in Afghanistan” was expressed by foreign ministers of member states of the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) following a November 28 collective security council meeting of the defence bloc in Astana. 

In comments to the media given after the gathering in the Kazakh capital, Russian President Vladimir Putin referred to the situation in Afghanistan as “complex”, but added: "We cannot ignore the fact that the situation in the country is stabilising. We are engaged in bilateral relations with the current [Taliban] authorities of Afghanistan and they [the relations] will be developed further."

An apparent cross-border attack on November 18 that left a Chinese national, a gold mine worker, dead in Tajikistan served as a reminder to observers that Afghanistan’s stability remains very much in question when it comes to building up trade and investment links between the country and China, Russia and Central Asia, with an eye on connecting through to further economic opportunities deeper in South Asia in countries including Pakistan and India.

RFE/RL cited sources as saying it was unclear whether the attackers crossed from Afghanistan to the gold mine in the Zarbuzi Gorge and whether they were criminals possibly involved in drug trafficking or members of a militant group. However, the attack marked the first known such incident leading to the death of a Chinese national and pointed to persistent security concerns as regards Tajikistan's southern frontier.

Among the dozens of extremist groups active inside Afghanistan are Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP, or ISIS-K)—who claimed the March terrorist attack at an outer Moscow concert hall that took the lives of more than 140 people and was allegedly committed by Tajik work migrants in Russia who took the role of the gunmen—as well as Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and Jamaat Ansarullah, which is made up mainly of Tajik citizens.

Rising violence could derail the many sizeable Chinese investment projects in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Tajikistan, worth billions of dollars, though, where Tajikistan is concerned, Edward Lemon, a Central Asia expert at Texas A&M University, was quoted by RFE/RL as saying that Beijing has invested significantly in beefing up Tajik military and law enforcement.

Lemon added: "Rather than derailing China's investments in the country, I think this attack [on the gold mine workers] will only strengthen China's role in security in the country. We can expect further military aid, training, and potentially an expanded role for Chinese private security companies operating in the country to protect Chinese investments."

The CSTO summit in Astana was attended by Putin—after the conclusion of a state visit—as well as by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, President of Kyrgyzstan Sadyr Japarov, and President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon. The collective security council session was also attended by Secretary General of the Commonwealth of Independent States and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lebedev and Secretary General of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Zhang Ming.

CSTO member Armenia, involved in an ongoing spat with Moscow, chose not to attend the CSTO meetings.
The full text of the statement on Afghanistan, as published by the Russian Foreign Ministry, said: “We, the Foreign Ministers of the Collective Security Treaty Organization member states, note the importance of strengthening regional cooperation on Afghanistan issues.

“We emphasize that strengthening peace and stability in Afghanistan, countering the threats of terrorism, violent extremism leading to terrorism, and drug-related crime emanating from its territory are in our common interests in the region.

“We express serious concern about the security situation in the context of the terrorist threat in Afghanistan, noting that terrorist groups based in Afghanistan pose a serious threat to the security of the CSTO member states.

“We note the importance of forming an inclusive government in Afghanistan that will represent the interests of all segments of the population and ethnic groups, and implement its commitments to ensure basic human rights and freedoms, including the rights of women and girls, including access to work and education.”

The Islamist fundamentalist Taliban, who retook power in Kabul in Augut 2021, have not indicated that they would be willing to form an inclusive government for Afghanistan, something also desired by Iran, which is concerned for the interests of the Persian-speaking substantial minorities in the country.

The security difficulties in Afghanistan are a deep frustration to Russia, Central Asia and Pakistan in particular, all of which would like to form a new economic macro-region across Central and South Asia to unlock lucrative trade and investment potential.

With no route to Pakistan but through Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, for instance, has been unable to realise its three-decade-old dream of piping gas to both Pakistan and India, while Russia needs Afghanistan to stabilise to bolster a range of “Global South” economic opportunities.

As Russian political analyst Yuri Solozobov said last week: “Europe is clearly alienating us, and China is not native to Russia. We need to move towards Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Afghanistan. And instead of the St Petersburg 'window to Europe', it is high time to cut a corridor to India”.