Hungary has withheld its consent to extend EU sanctions against Russia at the meeting of EU ambassadors on January 24. EU Foreign Ministers will gather on Monday, 27 January, to vote on the issue, but if no agreement is reached by the end of the month, Russia could potentially access €210bn of state assets currently frozen in Belgium.

European Council President Antonio Costa is reportedly considering convening an emergency summit for January 31, if Hungary sticks to its stance.

The sanctions imposed on Russia have cost Hungary €19bn over the last three years,  the prime minister said in a regular interview with state media on Friday, 24 January, while accusing Ukraine of "playing tricks" on Hungary and central Europe regarding energy transit routes. 

Orban said he had to "pull the brakes" and urged European leaders to recognise that Hungary cannot continue to bear a "disproportionate financial burden."

He listed three criteria needed for his support of extending sanctions. He demanded Ukraine to reopen Russian gas imports via the country's transit pipelines, refrain from "semi-legal and legal military actions" targeting gas transit infrastructure (TurkStream pipeline) and that Kyiv must pledge not to disrupt oil deliveries in the future.

In the interview, Orban has sent strong signals opposing the continuation of sanctions, arguing that they have failed to end the war, or cripple the Russian economy, or secure alternative affordable energy sources for Europe. 

Three days before Donald Trump's inauguration, Hungary's strongman said sanctions against Russia should be thrown out of the window describing them as harmful to the EU's competitiveness.

Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto on Sunday, 26 January said that before he meets EU counterparts in Brussels on Monday, he wants to make clear that Budapest receives "guarantees either from Ukraine or from the EU" on future energy security, reciting the same three conditions cited by Orban.

Hungary has consistently fought against sanctions that could threaten its national security and strategic interests, particularly in gas deliveries and nuclear energy cooperation, Szijjarto said, adding that sanctions did more harm to EU economies than to Russia.

In an interview with broadcaster RTL on Sunday night, taped on Thursday, he said Budapest will consult with the new US administration before making its position on sanctions.

According to Politico, Hungary is unlikely to follow through its veto threats to renew EU sanctions against Russia, especially after Donald Trump signalled new, harsher sanctions aimed at pressuring the Kremlin to negotiate.

The EU is also considering alternative solutions, such as invoking a 1944 Belgian law to prevent the release of frozen Russian assets held under Euroclear's supervision. These funds are crucial for financing a planned $50bn loan repayment to Ukraine.

While the debate focuses on the current sanctions, EU member states are also discussing the 16th sanctions package. EU leaders aim to adopt it before the third anniversary of the war’s outbreak.

Despite voicing criticism about the effectiveness of sanctions, Hungary has approved all 15 sanctions against Russia and has consistently supported the EU's measures.

Hungary's ongoing resistance to aligning with joint EU foreign policy has strained its relationship with long-time ally Poland. The previous PiS-led government had also expressed frustration with Budapest's pro-Kremlin stance.

"If Orban blocks EU sanctions, it will prove that he is siding with Vladimir Putin, with all the consequences this entails," Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk posted on X.

In response, Szijjarto replied that "it may be difficult for a Soros agent to understand, but when it comes to teams, we play for Hungary."

In related news, the Polish presidency is considering a strategy to circumvent potential vetoes by Hungary and Slovakia on the 16th round of sanctions. These could be reclassified as a trade policy measure, which under EU treaties requires only a qualified majority, unlike foreign and security policy decisions that mandate unanimous approval.