Trump loves a deal and he won’t continue to support Ukraine in its war against Russia unless he feels the US is going to get something out of it. What does Ukraine have to offer?

Ukraine is home to the largest reserves of uranium in Europe; the second-largest reserves of iron ore, titanium and manganese; and the third largest reserves of shale gas, the Washington Post reported. It also has large deposits of the hard-to-find lithium, graphite and other rare earth metals, according to a 2022 report by the Canadian geopolitical risk-analysis firm SecDev.

Senator Lindsey Graham is quite clear about what Ukraine has to offer Trump: “This war is about money,” Graham told Fox News in an interview in December.

“People don’t talk much about it, but you know, the richest country in all of Europe for rare earth minerals is Ukraine. $2-$7 trillion-worth of minerals that are rare earth minerals, very relevant to the 21^st century. Ukraine is ready to deal with us, not the Russians,” Graham said, who has been a frequent visitor to Kyiv and is an ardent supporter.

“It is the breadbasket of the developing world. 50% of all the grain going to Africa comes out of Ukraine,” Graham told Fox News. “We could make money and have an economic relationship with Ukraine that is very beneficial to us with peace. Donald Trump is going to do a deal to get our money back.”

The US has reportedly committed a total of $177bn to the war in Ukraine, although Zelenskiy confessed in December that half of that has failed to appear, cutting the US bill to a still sizable $89bn.

The FT reported that Zelenskiy included elements of the mineral pitch in Zelenskiy’s victory plan that the president was touting in Washington at the end of last year, thanks to Graham’s advice.

Mineral deposit development featured prominently in the fourth part of the plan, with Zelenskiy highlighting Ukraine’s abundant natural resources, such as uranium, titanium and lithium. He proposed joint investment initiatives with the EU and US to harness these resources, aiming to boost Ukraine’s economy and contribute to European growth.

The minerals pitch is just the sort of tactile transaction Trump loves. And it is true: Ukraine is home to large amounts of valuable hard-to-find minerals as well as other resources such as the endless golden acres of wheatfields that grow in the most fertile earth on the planet.

Trump was “interested” in the idea, the FT reported, as well as the second “ABC” argument – “anyone but China” that proponents of the plan are pushing, the FT reports.

Bankova (Ukraine’s equivalent of the Kremlin) has begun to take the Ukraine as an alternative supplier of key raw materials show on the road.

Ukraine can offer a vast array of strategic assets for US investors

Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal told delegates at the seventh German-Ukrainian Business Forum in December the first strategic benefit investors will get is access to critical raw materials.

“In the Ukrainian subsoil, there are 21 elements out of 30 identified by Europe as critical raw materials – lithium, graphite, cobalt, titanium, etc,” the prime minister said, estimating the total value of the mineral reserves at $11.5 trillion. If gas is added to the equation, then the raw materials valuation goes up to $26bn. And that is still not including agriculture. The US wish list of named strategic minerals is even longer, including 50 elements.

“Today, Germany needs stable supplies of metals and rare earth elements to develop its production. This demand will only grow over time,” said Shmyhal. “Ukraine is able to satisfy it and, thus, give impetus to the growth of the German economy. We can become part of the EU's single industrial chains of extraction, processing and supply. "

Ukraine twice postponed signing a minerals deal with the Biden administration, according to The New York Times (NYT), citing officials on both sides, to save it so Bankova can offer it to Trump instead.

Critical Raw Materials

Mineral Reserves

• Total value of mineral reserves: $11.5 trillion.
• Including gas reserves: $26bn.

Ukraine also possesses resources critical to the US, which lists 50 strategic minerals, further broadening the country’s appeal to American investors.

Lithium

• Ukraine holds a third of Europe’s proven lithium reserves, essential for electric vehicle (EV) batteries and renewable energy storage.
• Reserves could support the production of batteries for nearly 20mn EVs.
• Estimated worth: $2bn.

Titanium

• Ukraine’s titanium reserves can reduce global dependency on Russian supplies.
• Export revenue in 2024: $10.3mn.
• Ukraine’s share of global titanium production is underdeveloped, providing untapped potential.

Uranium

• Home to the largest uranium reserves in Europe.
• Strategic importance: Ukraine could help the US reduce dependency on Russian-enriched uranium, which currently accounts for nearly 25% of US imports.
• Requires investment in enrichment capabilities.

Rare Earth Elements and Noble Gases

• Ukraine’s rare earth elements include magnesium, gallium, vanadium and others critical for technology and defence industries.
• Noble gases: Before the war, Ukraine supplied 40% of the world’s krypton, 70% of neon, and significant amounts of xenon.

Energy Resources

Oil and Gas

• Despite the Russian occupation, Ukraine still controls 96.5% of its proven oil reserves and 96% of its natural gas reserves, the Washington Post reports.
• Offshore hydrocarbon deposits, reclaimed after the Russian Black Sea fleet’s withdrawal, add significant untapped potential.
• Estimated worth of oil and gas reserves: $50bn.

Renewable Energy

• Ukraine has developed significant renewable energy infrastructure, with potential to expand wind, solar and hydroelectric capacity.
• Opportunities exist for data centres powered by renewables, akin to models in Georgia and Kazakhstan.
• Renewables already made up 25% of Ukraine total generating capacity before the war, but it is unclear how much has been damaged in the meantime.

Nuclear power and electricity exports

• Pre-war Ukraine had a total installed electricity generating capacity of 55 GW, but Russia has damaged or destroyed most of the non-nuclear capacity (about half the total).
• Ukraine was miraculously hooked up to the ENTSO-E European power grid on the day before the Russian invasion and has significant electricity export potential if the war damage can be repaired.
• Ukraine is home to six nuclear power stations of which four remain operational and in the government’s hands. The Zaporizhzhia NPP, the largest in Europe, is currently occupied by the Armed Forces of Russia (AFR).
• Ukraine’s thermal generating capacity used to match its nuclear capacity, but has been badly damaged in the war.
• The breakdown of generation capacity by type is:
  • Nuclear Power: Around 13.8 GW (about 25% of total capacity).
  • Ukraine had 15 nuclear reactors across five working nuclear power plants (NPPs).
  • Thermal Power (Coal and Gas): Approximately 23 GW (about 42% of total capacity), concentrated in industrial regions, but almost all of this has been destroyed or damaged in 2024.
  • Hydropower: Roughly 6 GW (about 11% of total capacity). Key facilities included the Dnipro cascade of hydropower plants (HPPs), much of which has also been destroyed or damaged.
  • Renewables (wind, solar and biomass): Approximately 9 GW (around 16% of total capacity). Solar power dominated renewables with significant capacity, followed by wind power. However, many of these installations have been dismantled and taken to Russia.

Agriculture

Grain and Oilseeds

• 2024 grain exports: $9.4bn (53.9mn tonnes), a 20% increase over 2023.
• Historical peak in 2021: $12.3bn in grain export revenue.
• Ukraine’s black earth (“chernozem”) soil is among the most fertile in the world, supporting vast wheatfields and high-yield harvests.
• Pre-war, together with Russia their combined exports made up a third of the world’s tradeable grain. Russia and Ukraine export comparable amounts of grain.

Agricultural Potential

• Despite war-induced losses, agriculture remains a cornerstone of the economy, contributing $23bn in export revenue in 2023.
• Ukraine's combined grain and oilseed harvest decreased by just over a quarter (28%) from 107mn tonnes in 2021 to an estimated 77mn tonnes in 2024.
• Russia’s naval blockade also hurt exports until the Black Sea Grain Initiative was agreed only to be suspended again after a year.
• Infrastructure supporting agricultural has also been damaged. The destruction of the Nova Kakhovka Dam in 2023 sent a tidal wave over much farmland and had a severe impact on irrigation systems, leaving 584,000 hectares of land without water and turning them into "deserts." This area previously accounted for about 4% of Ukraine's grain and oilseed production. Another 174,000 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory are covered with landmines making them unworkable for now.
• Challenges include mined fields and damaged irrigation systems, which could lead to indirect losses of $83bn by 2025, according to Reuters.
• Leading companies: MHP (egg and poultry) and Kernel (sunflower oil), demonstrating profitability and resilience.

Industrial Assets

Steel and Metallurgy

• Ukraine’s steel industry, historically the second-largest source of foreign currency, has faced significant challenges due to the war.
• Metinvest’s Pokrovsk mine is a key producer of coking coal, essential for steelmaking.
• Ukraine's largest steel producer, Metinvest, has suspended operations at its Pischane coal plant near the frontline town of Pokrovsk in the middle of December as the fighting has come too close
• Remaining production assets could generate $2bn annually if stabilised and fully operational.

Coal

• Despite losing 57% of coal reserves to Russian control, Ukraine retains significant deposits worth an estimated $11.9 trillion.
• Ukraine's leading energy company DTEK has he bulk of its mines in rebel territory, but they supply coal to power plants for Ukraine's largest cities such as Kyiv goes on as the mines work under a barrage of rockets.
• Part of Russia’s push is to grab the coal assets that underpin the entire Ukrainian metallurgical industry in east of the country but still under Ukrainian control – just.